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2016 SAG and Golden Globes Nominees Analysis: Do They Always Lead to Oscar Noms?

SAG & Golden Globes Noms Statistics Suggest Chances of Oscar Nom Increases, But The Numbers Don’t Always Add Up.

About the Golden Globes….

Ok, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) is weird. As writer Anne Thompson described in her blog predicting the 2016 Golden Globes Nominees, regarding the HFPA:

an idiosyncratic group of 90 entertainment editors and writers who report on the film and television business for their outlets in 55 countries, is no easy task. They are wined and dined all year by publicists, and sent on studio junkets where they conduct round table interviews, and hang with stars at various parties. Many of these media folks consider themselves to be friends with the stars, because they have been covering them for so long.”

In other words, the HFPA wants and enjoys big stars at their Golden Globes ceremonies. Therefore, while their tastes range from indie centric films to more mainstream fare, they want the famous people in the seats. Which is why you’ll hear names like Leonardo Di Caprio, Matt Damon, Johnny Depp, and Jennifer Lawrence.

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The Screen Actors Guild nominations, which were released Wednesday morning, similarly boost momentum. Whilst the SAG nominating committee, which alters annually, has the tendency to be a bit more conventional in comparison to the Oscars, they are normally a bit more predictive in comparison to the Globes, as these individuals hail from within the movie neighborhood.

As The Hollywood Reporter investigated, SAG and Golden Globe nominations don’t always lead to Oscar nods:

Not all Oscar predictors are created equal. Since the start of the expanded best picture era in 2009, the Golden Globes have matched the Academy on 39 best picture nominees out of 55, or 71 percent. The Screen Actors Guild (using SAG’s best ensemble cast award as a best picture proxy) has matched the Oscars on only 25 films, or 45 percent.

golden globes
Photo: THR

Interestingly, this year, SAG decided to go noticeably more mainstream; the film with the most nominees is Trumbo — which was well received, but not necessarily something you’d expect to dominate the nominations. The Golden Globes are a bit more different. Also, a huge factor to take into account is that the HFPA likes to separate Drama from Musical/Comedy — although in recent years, what’s considered a drama and what’s considered comedy has gotten more blurred. So, there are more actors nominated for Golden Globes than SAG awards.

The biggest delightful surprise of the Golden Globes is the love for Mad Max: Fury Road. Also, Jennifer Jason Leigh could have a Patricia Arquette type comeback this year with her Best Supporting Actress nomination for The Hateful Eight.

Finally, it’s fantastic to see Sly Stallone get some love for his fantastic performance in Creed.

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Best Motion Picture, Drama

Carol

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Best Comedy or Musical:

The Big Short

Joy

The Martian

Spy

Trainwreck

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Will Smith, Concussion

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Best Director – Motion Picture

Todd Haynes, Carol

Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

Kate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Rooney Mara, Carol

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Emma Donoghue, Room

Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer, Spotlight

Charles Randolph, Adam McKay, The Big Short

Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Best Animated Feature Film

Anomalisa

The Good Dinosaur

Inside Out

The Peanuts Movie

Shaun the Sheep Movie

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